How much revenue did Nightmare: The Lunatic make?

$32k–$85k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Nightmare: The Lunatic sell?

Q: How many copies did Nightmare: The Lunatic sell?

7k to 11k copies, based on its 272 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 7k–11k; $32k–$85k after Steam's cut $57k–$130k before Steam's cut; from 272 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Nightmare: The Lunatic and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Nightmare: The Lunatic's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.6M–4.8M

best case 10.1M (Hades)

Games like Nightmare: The Lunatic

A typical game among these

≈ 1.6M–4.8M copies

≈ $10.6M–$52.7M after Steam's cut

from ~53k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Hades at ≈ 7.7M–12.5M copies, ≈ $52.9M–$142.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 29k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 86k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Action Roguelike (6 of 8) and Rogue-like (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Rogue-lite, priced around $25.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Hades 2020	Est. copies ≈ 7.7M–12.5M 5.9x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $52.9M–$142.2M after Steam's cut $96.1M–$218.7M before Steam's cut	$24.99	310k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Action RoguelikeRogue-lite
Skul: The Hero Slayer 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1.4M–2.3M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.9M–$21.2M after Steam's cut $14.3M–$32.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	58k reviews Very Positive	IndieAction
Sifu 2023	Est. copies ≈ 717k–1.2M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.9M–$21.2M after Steam's cut $14.3M–$32.6M before Steam's cut	$39.99	29k reviews Very Positive	ActionMartial Arts
Hades II 2025	Est. copies ≈ 3.1M–5.0M 2.3x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $25.3M–$68.0M after Steam's cut $46.0M–$104.6M before Steam's cut	$29.99	124k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ActionRogue-like
Hero Siege 2014	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.9M–$15.8M after Steam's cut $10.7M–$24.4M before Steam's cut	$7.99	48k reviews Mixed	Action RPGPixel Graphics
Dead Cells 2018	Est. copies ≈ 5.6M–9.1M 3.5x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $38.4M–$103.2M after Steam's cut $69.8M–$158.8M before Steam's cut	$24.99	184k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AdventureAction Roguelike
Lost Castle / 失落城堡 2016	Est. copies ≈ 998k–1.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.7M–$7.4M after Steam's cut $5.0M–$11.3M before Steam's cut	$9.99	24k reviews Very Positive	4 Player LocalAction Roguelike
Crypt of the NecroDancer 2015	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.3M–$14.3M after Steam's cut $9.7M–$22.1M before Steam's cut	$14.99	27k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	RhythmFemale Protagonist