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How many copies did Crazy Machines 3 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 420k–683k
$1.2M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.8M before Steam's cut
from 10k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Crazy Machines 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Crazy Machines 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 882k–1.2M
best case 731k (Hardspace: Shipbreaker)
Games like Crazy Machines 3

A typical game among these

≈ 882k–1.2M copies

≈ $4.7M–$7.7M after Steam's cut

from ~19k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Hardspace: Shipbreaker at ≈ 557k–905k copies, ≈ $5.4M–$14.4M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 742 reviews in their first month; the range was 392 to 13k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Physics (8 of 8) and Simulation (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Space + Sci-fi, priced around $35.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Crowd Simulator
2019
Est. copies
≈ 16k–26k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$13k–$35k after Steam's cut $24k–$54k before Steam's cut
$2.99
547 reviews
Mostly Positive
SimulationPhysics
Surgeon Simulator
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.9M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.2M before Steam's cut
$9.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationFunny
Poly Bridge 2
2020
Est. copies
≈ 204k–332k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$842k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.5M before Steam's cut
$14.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
BuildingSimulation
‎My Suika – Kyo’s Fruit Merge
2023
Est. copies
≈ 48k–78k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$13k–$35k after Steam's cut $24k–$54k before Steam's cut
$0.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
CasualSimulation
Bridge Constructor Portal
2017
Est. copies
≈ 259k–421k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$712k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$2.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Poly Bridge 3
2023
Est. copies
≈ 54k–88k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$296k–$797k after Steam's cut $539k–$1.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
2k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Hardspace: Shipbreaker
2022
Est. copies
≈ 557k–905k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.4M–$14.4M after Steam's cut $9.7M–$22.2M before Steam's cut
$34.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceSci-fi
Poly Bridge
2016
Est. copies
≈ 788k–1.3M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$5.8M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$9.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
BuildingSimulation

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