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How many copies did TIS-100 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 201k–326k
$386k–$1.0M after Steam's cut $702k–$1.6M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid TIS-100 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including TIS-100's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.6M–5.0M
best case 12.4M (Human Fall Flat)
Games like TIS-100

A typical game among these

≈ 1.6M–5.0M copies

≈ $14.1M–$34.0M after Steam's cut

from ~53k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Human Fall Flat at ≈ 9.5M–15.4M copies, ≈ $52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 31k reviews in their first month; the range was 4k to 38k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sandbox (5 of 8) and Physics (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + Puzzle, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Papers, Please
2013
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.3M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.0M–$37.6M after Steam's cut $25.5M–$57.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
81k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
IndiePolitical
Human Fall Flat
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.5M–15.4M
4.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut $94.5M–$214.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
227k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opFunny
The Talos Principle
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$15.3M–$41.1M after Steam's cut $27.8M–$63.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
33k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzlePhilosophical
PC Building Simulator
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.4M–$22.5M after Steam's cut $15.2M–$34.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
53k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationEducation
Teardown
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$27.9M–$75.0M after Steam's cut $50.7M–$115.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
136k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DestructionPhysics
Besiege
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationSandbox
Unpacking
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.6M–$15.1M after Steam's cut $10.2M–$23.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
41k reviews
Very Positive
RelaxingCute
BONEWORKS
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.7M–$23.3M after Steam's cut $15.8M–$35.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
VRPhysics

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.