How many copies did Moonbase Alpha sell?

813k to 1.3M copies, based on its 13k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

How much revenue did Moonbase Alpha make?

Moonbase Alpha is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How big is Moonbase Alpha?

Estimated players who have it: ≈ 813k–1.3M; from 13k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Moonbase Alpha and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Moonbase Alpha's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 21k–77k

best case 10.7M (Stellaris)

Games like Moonbase Alpha

A typical game among these

≈ 21k–77k copies

≈ $26k–$102k after Steam's cut

from ~641 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Stellaris at ≈ 8.2M–13.3M copies, ≈ $112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Memes (5 of 8) and Simulation (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Simulation, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Simulation + Relaxing + Singleplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Mountain 2014	Est. copies ≈ 912k–1.5M 25x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $248k–$668k after Steam's cut $452k–$1.0M before Steam's cut	$0.99	16k reviews Very Positive	SimulationIndie
МЕМОЛОГИЯ 2021	Est. copies ≈ 15k–24k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $4k–$11k after Steam's cut $7k–$16k before Steam's cut	$0.99	585 reviews Very Positive	MemesParody
Gabe Newell Simulator 2015	Est. copies ≈ 34k–55k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $28k–$75k after Steam's cut $51k–$116k before Steam's cut	$2.99	696 reviews Mixed	MemesAction
Stellaris 2016	Est. copies ≈ 8.2M–13.3M 307x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut $204.7M–$465.6M before Steam's cut	$49.99	197k reviews Very Positive	SpaceGrand Strategy
Nyan Cat: Lost In Space 2015	Est. copies ≈ 100k–162k 3.2x vs typical SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $137k–$369k after Steam's cut $249k–$567k before Steam's cut	$4.99	2k reviews Very Positive	MemesCats
Elon Simulator 2019 2019	Est. copies ≈ 14k–23k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue Free	Free	496 reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayRacing
GASP 2016	Est. copies ≈ 67k–109k 2.5x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue Free	Free	2k reviews Mostly Negative	Free to PlaySpace
Polandball: Can into Space! 2016	Est. copies ≈ 21k–34k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $17k–$47k after Steam's cut $32k–$72k before Steam's cut	$2.99	509 reviews Very Positive	MemesCasual