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How many copies did Polandball: Can into Space! sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 21k–34k
$17k–$47k after Steam's cut $32k–$72k before Steam's cut
from 509 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Polandball: Can into Space! and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Polandball: Can into Space!'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.0M–7.0M
best case 23.0M (No Man's Sky)
Games like Polandball: Can into Space!

A typical game among these

≈ 1.0M–7.0M copies

≈ $19.4M–$168.0M after Steam's cut

from ~43k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Open World (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: No Man's Sky at ≈ 17.5M–28.5M copies, ≈ $289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 496 reviews in their first month; the range was 24 to 21k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (4 of 8) and Space (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Open World Survival Craft, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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4.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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No Man's Sky
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9.7x vs typical
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too small to compare
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FunnyAction

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