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How many copies did AI War: Fleet Command sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 102k–165k
$280k–$752k after Steam's cut $509k–$1.2M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid AI War: Fleet Command and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including AI War: Fleet Command's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 850k–1.1M
best case 10.7M (Stellaris)
Games like AI War: Fleet Command

A typical game among these

≈ 850k–1.1M copies

≈ $6.9M–$12.0M after Steam's cut

from ~14k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Stellaris at ≈ 8.2M–13.3M copies, ≈ $112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sci-fi (8 of 8) and RTS (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Space + Grand Strategy, priced around $50. The breakout hits carry 4X + Exploration + Sandbox; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2007 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Supreme Commander: Forged Alliance
2011
Est. copies
≈ 910k–1.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.3M–$8.7M after Steam's cut $5.9M–$13.5M before Steam's cut
$12.99
14k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StrategyRTS
Stellaris
2016
Est. copies
≈ 8.2M–13.3M
14x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut $204.7M–$465.6M before Steam's cut
$49.99
197k reviews
Very Positive
STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack
2010
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$15.0M–$40.4M after Steam's cut $27.3M–$62.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
43k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StrategyRTS
Warhammer® 40,000: Dawn of War® - Dark Crusade
2007
Est. copies
≈ 603k–980k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
10k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StrategyWarhammer 40K
Supreme Commander 2
2010
Est. copies
≈ 821k–1.3M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.9M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.1M before Steam's cut
$12.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRTS
Homeworld Remastered Collection
2015
Est. copies
≈ 693k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.7M–$17.9M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.6M before Steam's cut
$34.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceStrategy
Planetary Annihilation: TITANS
2015
Est. copies
≈ 718k–1.2M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.9M–$15.9M after Steam's cut $10.8M–$24.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
RTSStrategy
Aliens: Dark Descent
2023
Est. copies
≈ 469k–763k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.2M–$13.9M after Steam's cut $9.4M–$21.4M before Steam's cut
$39.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyAction

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