How much revenue did Twilight Struggle make?

$342k–$919k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Twilight Struggle sell?

Q: How many copies did Twilight Struggle sell?

124k to 202k copies, based on its 3k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 124k–202k; $342k–$919k after Steam's cut $622k–$1.4M before Steam's cut; from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Twilight Struggle and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Twilight Struggle's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 405k–692k

best case 4.8M (Tabletop Simulator)

Games like Twilight Struggle

A typical game among these

≈ 405k–692k copies

≈ $1.8M–$3.4M after Steam's cut

from ~9k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Tabletop Simulator at ≈ 3.6M–5.9M copies, ≈ $20.0M–$53.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Tabletop (8 of 8) and Board Game (7 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Card Game + Tabletop, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Card Game + Family Friendly + Funny; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2012 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Axis & Allies 1942 Online 2021	Est. copies ≈ 127k–206k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $698k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$2.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	5k reviews Mostly Positive	WargameBoard Game
Catan Universe 2017	Est. copies ≈ 626k–1.0M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	18k reviews Mixed	Board GameMultiplayer
Ticket to Ride: Classic Edition 2012	Est. copies ≈ 346k–561k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	5k reviews Very Positive	Board GameStrategy
UNO 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.9M–3.0M 5.8x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before Steam's cut	$9.99	54k reviews Mostly Positive	Card GameMultiplayer
Tabletop Simulator 2015	Est. copies ≈ 3.6M–5.9M 8.0x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $20.0M–$53.8M after Steam's cut $36.4M–$82.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	75k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	TabletopBoard Game
Talisman: Digital Classic Edition 2014	Est. copies ≈ 561k–912k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut	$6.99	10k reviews Mostly Positive	Board GameTabletop
Ultimate General: Civil War 2017	Est. copies ≈ 296k–481k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $2.4M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.4M–$10.1M before Steam's cut	$29.99	9k reviews Very Positive	WargameReal Time Tactics
Richman10 2019	Est. copies ≈ 424k–690k 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.6M–$4.4M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.8M before Steam's cut	$13.99	15k reviews Mixed	CasualMultiplayer