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How many copies did Blood and Bacon sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
$415k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $754k–$1.7M before Steam's cut
from 37k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Blood and Bacon and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Blood and Bacon's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6.7M–11.5M
best case 12.4M (Deep Rock Galactic)
Games like Blood and Bacon

A typical game among these

≈ 6.7M–11.5M copies

≈ $49.7M–$53.2M after Steam's cut

from ~164k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Open World (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Deep Rock Galactic at ≈ 9.4M–15.3M copies, ≈ $77.8M–$209.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (4 of 8) and Third Person (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Souls-like + Ninja, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 1998 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Half-Life
1998
Est. copies
≈ 10.4M–16.9M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$28.5M–$76.7M after Steam's cut $51.9M–$118.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
164k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSClassic
Grand Theft Auto IV: Complete Edition
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.2M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
204k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition
2019
Est. copies
≈ 10.3M–16.7M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$169.4M–$455.5M after Steam's cut $308.0M–$700.8M before Steam's cut
$59.99
357k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Souls-likeDifficult
POSTAL 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 8.7M–14.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$24.0M–$64.5M after Steam's cut $43.6M–$99.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
138k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ViolentDark Humor
People Playground
2019
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$25.4M–$68.2M after Steam's cut $46.1M–$104.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
321k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxGore
Deep Rock Galactic
2020
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.3M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$77.8M–$209.2M after Steam's cut $141.5M–$321.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
380k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DwarfCo-op
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$27.9M–$75.1M after Steam's cut $50.8M–$115.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
205k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Slime Rancher
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.8M–$80.2M after Steam's cut $54.2M–$123.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
158k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CuteExploration

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