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How many copies did Afterbeat (Project Arrhythmia) sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 78k–126k
$321k–$862k after Steam's cut $583k–$1.3M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Afterbeat (Project Arrhythmia) and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Afterbeat (Project Arrhythmia)'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 26k–247k
best case 1.0M (Just Shapes & Beats)
Games like Afterbeat (Project Arrhythmia)

A typical game among these

≈ 26k–247k copies

≈ $99k–$1.1M after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Just Shapes & Beats at ≈ 795k–1.3M copies, ≈ $4.4M–$11.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Music (8 of 8) and Rhythm (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Rhythm + Music, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Just Shapes & Beats
2018
Est. copies
≈ 795k–1.3M
24x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.4M–$11.8M after Steam's cut $7.9M–$18.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
26k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RhythmGreat Soundtrack
Beat Hazard
2010
Est. copies
≈ 471k–765k
6.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmMusic-Based Procedural Generation
Touhou Danmaku Kagura Phantasia Lost
2024
Est. copies
≈ 62k–101k
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$341k–$916k after Steam's cut $619k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
MusicAction
Beat Hazard 3
2024
Est. copies
≈ 17k–27k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$93k–$249k after Steam's cut $169k–$383k before Steam's cut
$19.99
680 reviews
Very Positive
RhythmMusic-Based Procedural Generation
The Polynomial - Space of the music
2010
Est. copies
≈ 32k–51k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$61k–$163k after Steam's cut $110k–$251k before Steam's cut
$6.99
500 reviews
Mostly Positive
IndieMusic
Symphony
2012
Est. copies
≈ 94k–153k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$130k–$348k after Steam's cut $236k–$536k before Steam's cut
$4.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
MusicIndie
Beat Da Beat
2016
Est. copies
≈ 20k–33k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$11k–$30k after Steam's cut $20k–$46k before Steam's cut
$1.99
489 reviews
Very Positive
IndieBullet Hell
DubWars
2016
Est. copies
≈ 12k–20k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$33k–$89k after Steam's cut $60k–$137k before Steam's cut
$9.99
290 reviews
Mostly Positive
IndieCasual

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