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How many copies did Touhou Danmaku Kagura Phantasia Lost sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 62k–101k
$341k–$916k after Steam's cut $619k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Touhou Danmaku Kagura Phantasia Lost and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Touhou Danmaku Kagura Phantasia Lost's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.4M–3.0M
best case 47.6M (Geometry Dash)
Games like Touhou Danmaku Kagura Phantasia Lost

A typical game among these

≈ 1.4M–3.0M copies

≈ $6.3M–$17.8M after Steam's cut

from ~36k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Geometry Dash at ≈ 36.2M–58.9M copies, ≈ $49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rhythm (8 of 8) and Music (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Music + Level Editor, priced around $5. The breakout hits carry Precision Platformer + Level Editor + 2D; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

A Dance of Fire and Ice
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.0M–$10.7M after Steam's cut $7.2M–$16.5M before Steam's cut
$5.99
84k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmMusic
Hi-Fi RUSH
2023
Est. copies
≈ 893k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.4M–$19.8M after Steam's cut $13.4M–$30.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
36k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RhythmAction
Super Hexagon
2012
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.4M before Steam's cut
$2.99
25k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DifficultGreat Soundtrack
Crypt of the NecroDancer
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.3M–$14.3M after Steam's cut $9.7M–$22.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
27k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RhythmFemale Protagonist
Geometry Dash
2014
Est. copies
≈ 36.2M–58.9M
18x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut $90.4M–$205.7M before Steam's cut
$4.99
647k reviews
Very Positive
DifficultMusic
Muse Dash
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
3.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.0M before Steam's cut
$2.99
122k reviews
Very Positive
MusicRhythm
DJMAX RESPECT V
2020
Est. copies
≈ 867k–1.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.9M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
35k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmMusic
Beat Saber
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
VRRhythm

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