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How big is Clover Tale?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 36k–58k
from 859 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Clover Tale and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Clover Tale's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 17.9M–42.4M
best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Clover Tale

A typical game among these

≈ 17.9M–42.4M copies

≈ $83.6M–$133.9M after Steam's cut

from ~493k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Co-op (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Co-op (3 of 8) and Anime (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2018. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
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MatureUtilities
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
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≈ 95.8M–155.7M
5.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
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Mixed
SurvivalShooter
BeamNG.drive
2015
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SimulationDriving
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Tower DefenseStrategy
Unturned
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≈ 19.4M–31.6M
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Free to PlaySurvival
Geometry Dash
2014
Est. copies
≈ 36.2M–58.9M
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DifficultMusic
Brawlhalla
2017
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≈ 14.2M–23.1M
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