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How many copies did Genital Jousting sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 343k–557k
$659k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before Steam's cut
from 11k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Genital Jousting and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Genital Jousting's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.6M–2.2M
best case 15.2M (Fall Guys)
Games like Genital Jousting

A typical game among these

≈ 1.6M–2.2M copies

≈ $14.6M–$27.2M after Steam's cut

from ~44k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Story Rich (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Fall Guys at ≈ 11.6M–18.9M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 22k reviews in their first month; the range was 5k to 144k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (3 of 8) and Anime (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Party Game + Battle Royale, priced around $80. The breakout hits carry Multiplayer + Cute; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Source Filmmaker
2012
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
44k reviews
Very Positive
Animation & ModelingFree to Play
Life is Strange 2
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.0M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
41k reviews
Very Positive
Choices MatterStory Rich
Fall Guys
2020
Est. copies
≈ 11.6M–18.9M
11x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
468k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerParty Game
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.8M–$28.9M after Steam's cut $19.5M–$44.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
45k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectiveVisual Novel
Helltaker
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
128k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Free to PlayCute
Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$18.8M–$50.5M after Steam's cut $34.2M–$77.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
50k reviews
Very Positive
FPSAction
Borderlands 3
2020
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$89.5M–$240.7M after Steam's cut $162.8M–$370.4M before Steam's cut
$79.99
164k reviews
Very Positive
RPGLooter Shooter
Yakuza: Like a Dragon
2020
Est. copies
≈ 934k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
38k reviews
Very Positive
RPGAdventure

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