How much revenue did Manifold Garden make?

$1.2M–$3.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Manifold Garden sell?

Q: How many copies did Manifold Garden sell?

213k to 346k copies, based on its 9k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 213k–346k; $1.2M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.8M before Steam's cut; from 9k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Manifold Garden and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Manifold Garden's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 224k–693k

best case 1.5M (The Beginner's Guide)

Games like Manifold Garden

A typical game among these

≈ 224k–693k copies

≈ $1.2M–$5.0M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: The Beginner's Guide at ≈ 1.2M–1.9M copies, ≈ $3.2M–$8.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 441 to 2k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Surreal (6 of 8) and Puzzle (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Story Rich + Walking Simulator, priced around $10.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Antichamber 2013	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M 3.6x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $6.2M–$16.6M after Steam's cut $11.2M–$25.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	18k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	PuzzleFirst-Person
Viewfinder 2023	Est. copies ≈ 330k–536k 2.7x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $2.3M–$6.1M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.4M before Steam's cut	$24.99	13k reviews Very Positive	Puzzle-PlatformerPuzzle
The Beginner's Guide 2015	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–1.9M 4.7x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.2M–$8.5M after Steam's cut $5.8M–$13.1M before Steam's cut	$9.99	24k reviews Very Positive	Story Rich Walking Simulator
NaissanceE 2014	Est. copies ≈ 250k–406k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue Free	Free	4k reviews Very Positive	ExplorationIndie
When The Past Was Around 2020	Est. copies ≈ 110k–179k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $242k–$650k after Steam's cut $440k–$1.0M before Steam's cut	$7.99	4k reviews Very Positive	CuteHidden Object
Moncage 2021	Est. copies ≈ 138k–224k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $568k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.3M before Steam's cut	$14.99	6k reviews Very Positive	PuzzleCasual
Papo & Yo 2013	Est. copies ≈ 182k–295k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $750k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.1M before Steam's cut	$14.99	3k reviews Very Positive	3D PlatformerPuzzle-Platformer
The Bridge 2013	Est. copies ≈ 275k–447k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $756k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.1M before Steam's cut	$9.99	4k reviews Very Positive	Puzzle-PlatformerHand-drawn