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How many copies did Tomato Jones sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 18k–29k
$24k–$66k after Steam's cut $44k–$101k before Steam's cut
from 427 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tomato Jones and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tomato Jones's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 472k–1.6M
best case 5.3M (Little Nightmares)
Games like Tomato Jones

A typical game among these

≈ 472k–1.6M copies

≈ $2.3M–$16.8M after Steam's cut

from ~14k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Little Nightmares at ≈ 4.0M–6.5M copies, ≈ $22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 358 to 8k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (7 of 8) and Dark (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Puzzle-Platformer, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Little Nightmares
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
8.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's cut $40.1M–$91.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
117k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorAtmospheric
Little Nightmares II
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
4.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.0M–$32.3M after Steam's cut $21.8M–$49.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
59k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorAdventure
Outcore: Desktop Adventure
2022
Est. copies
≈ 457k–743k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
18k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ibb & obb
2014
Est. copies
≈ 383k–623k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.4M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.2M before Steam's cut
$11.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opOnline Co-Op
Antichamber
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.2M–$16.6M after Steam's cut $11.2M–$25.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
18k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzleFirst-Person
The Swapper
2013
Est. copies
≈ 480k–780k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.0M–$5.3M after Steam's cut $3.6M–$8.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleSci-fi
Seen
2019
Est. copies
≈ 288k–467k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$78k–$210k after Steam's cut $142k–$324k before Steam's cut
$0.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessIndie
In Sound Mind
2021
Est. copies
≈ 174k–283k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.2M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$4.9M before Steam's cut
$24.99
7k reviews
Very Positive

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