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How many copies did PostCollapse sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4k–7k
$9k–$24k after Steam's cut $16k–$37k before Steam's cut
from 133 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid PostCollapse and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including PostCollapse's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.0M–5.6M
best case 56.0M (Rust)
Games like PostCollapse

A typical game among these

≈ 4.0M–5.6M copies

≈ $39.0M–$57.6M after Steam's cut

from ~90k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Rust at ≈ 42.7M–69.3M copies, ≈ $469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Survival (8 of 8) and Open World (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Open World, priced around $32. The breakout hits carry Sandbox + Open World Survival Craft + Multiplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Project Zomboid
2013
Est. copies
≈ 30.5M–49.6M
5.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$209.9M–$564.4M after Steam's cut $381.6M–$868.2M before Steam's cut
$24.99
483k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalZombies
Fallout Shelter
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
83k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayBase-Building
Rust
2018
Est. copies
≈ 42.7M–69.3M
16x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut $853.3M–$1941.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
1.4M reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalCrafting
The Long Dark
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.3M–6.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$23.4M–$63.0M after Steam's cut $42.6M–$97.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
124k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
Frostpunk
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$34.5M–$92.8M after Steam's cut $62.8M–$142.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
138k reviews
Very Positive
Just Survive
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
77k reviews
Mixed
ZombiesSurvival
This War of Mine
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–8.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.1M–$81.0M after Steam's cut $54.8M–$124.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
98k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalWar
State of Decay 2: Juggernaut Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.3M–$38.6M after Steam's cut $26.1M–$59.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
70k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.