How much revenue did Fate/EXTELLA make?

$1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Fate/EXTELLA sell?

Q: How many copies did Fate/EXTELLA sell?

154k to 251k copies, based on its 4k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 154k–251k; $1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut; from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Fate/EXTELLA and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Fate/EXTELLA's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.2M–2.2M

best case 6.5M (Devil May Cry 5)

Games like Fate/EXTELLA

A typical game among these

≈ 1.2M–2.2M copies

≈ $21.8M–$29.4M after Steam's cut

from ~37k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Hack and Slash (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Devil May Cry 5 at ≈ 4.9M–8.0M copies, ≈ $40.6M–$109.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 14k reviews in their first month; the range was 9k to 31k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Hack and Slash (4 of 8) and JRPG (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Hack and Slash, priced around $35. The breakout hits carry Hack and Slash + Great Soundtrack + Female Protagonist; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
BlazBlue Entropy Effect 2024	Est. copies ≈ 908k–1.5M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $5.0M–$13.4M after Steam's cut $9.1M–$20.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	37k reviews Very Positive	Action RoguelikeAction-Adventure
NieR:Automata™ 2017	Est. copies ≈ 5.3M–8.6M 4.2x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $58.2M–$156.5M after Steam's cut $105.8M–$240.7M before Steam's cut	$39.99	154k reviews Very Positive	Great SoundtrackStory Rich
NieR Replicant™ ver.1.22474487139... 2021	Est. copies ≈ 707k–1.1M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $11.7M–$31.3M after Steam's cut $21.2M–$48.2M before Steam's cut	$59.99	28k reviews Very Positive	Great SoundtrackStory Rich
FINAL FANTASY XV WINDOWS EDITION 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.8M–2.9M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $17.0M–$45.8M after Steam's cut $31.0M–$70.5M before Steam's cut	$34.99	58k reviews Very Positive	RPGOpen World
Tales of ARISE 2023	Est. copies ≈ 912k–1.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $12.5M–$33.7M after Steam's cut $22.8M–$51.9M before Steam's cut	$49.99	37k reviews Very Positive	AnimeJRPG
DmC: Devil May Cry 2013	Est. copies ≈ 2.1M–3.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $17.3M–$46.4M after Steam's cut $31.4M–$71.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	33k reviews Very Positive	ActionHack and Slash
Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $12.3M–$33.0M after Steam's cut $22.3M–$50.8M before Steam's cut	$29.99	49k reviews Very Positive	RPGStory Rich
Devil May Cry 5 2019	Est. copies ≈ 4.9M–8.0M 4.7x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $40.6M–$109.2M after Steam's cut $73.9M–$168.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	171k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ActionHack and Slash