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How many copies did RAGE 2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 492k–799k
$5.4M–$14.5M after Steam's cut $9.8M–$22.4M before Steam's cut
from 17k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid RAGE 2 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including RAGE 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 26.8M–44.5M
best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like RAGE 2

A typical game among these

≈ 26.8M–44.5M copies

≈ $210.5M–$808.5M after Steam's cut

from ~953k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (6 of 8) and Survival (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.8M–33.7M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
683k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 95.8M–155.7M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.8M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Cyberpunk 2077
2020
Est. copies
≈ 24.4M–39.6M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut $730.9M–$1662.7M before Steam's cut
$59.99
983k reviews
Very Positive
CyberpunkOpen World
Red Dead Redemption 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 26.6M–43.2M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$438.4M–$1178.6M after Steam's cut $797.0M–$1813.3M before Steam's cut
$59.99
923k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldStory Rich
Destiny 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 19.1M–31.0M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
663k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayOpen World
Rust
2018
Est. copies
≈ 42.7M–69.3M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut $853.3M–$1941.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
1.4M reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalCrafting
Unturned
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.4M–31.6M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
565k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlaySurvival

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.