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How many copies did MechDefender - Tower Defense sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 9k–15k
$13k–$34k after Steam's cut $23k–$52k before Steam's cut
from 371 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid MechDefender - Tower Defense and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including MechDefender - Tower Defense's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3k–69k
best case 110k (Warhammer 40,000: Warpforge)
Games like MechDefender - Tower Defense

A typical game among these

≈ 3k–69k copies

≈ $7k–$30k after Steam's cut

from ~316 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Warhammer 40,000: Warpforge at ≈ 84k–136k copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 55 reviews in their first month; the range was 7 to 2k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Card Game (6 of 8) and Trading Card Game (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based Strategy + Warhammer 40K.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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11x vs typical
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