How much revenue did Derail Valley make?

$3.1M–$8.4M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Derail Valley sell?

Q: How many copies did Derail Valley sell?

283k to 460k copies, based on its 10k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 283k–460k; $3.1M–$8.4M after Steam's cut $5.7M–$12.9M before Steam's cut; from 10k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Derail Valley and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Derail Valley's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 288k–1.3M

best case 7.7M (Factorio)

Games like Derail Valley

A typical game among these

≈ 288k–1.3M copies

≈ $3.4M–$15.1M after Steam's cut

from ~16k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Factorio at ≈ 5.9M–9.5M copies, ≈ $56.4M–$151.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 11k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 86k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Base-Building (5 of 8) and Automation (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Automation + Base-Building, priced around $35.
When they shipped: 4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024	Est. copies ≈ 682k–1.1M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.5M–$20.2M after Steam's cut $13.6M–$31.0M before Steam's cut	$39.99	27k reviews Very Positive	StrategySimulation
SimRail - The Railway Simulator 2024	Est. copies ≈ 138k–224k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.5M before Steam's cut	$34.99	6k reviews Very Positive	TrainsSimulation
Factorio 2020	Est. copies ≈ 5.9M–9.5M 15x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $56.4M–$151.5M after Steam's cut $102.5M–$233.1M before Steam's cut	$35.00	236k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AutomationBase-Building
shapez 2 - Factory 2026	Est. copies ≈ 385k–625k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $3.2M–$8.5M after Steam's cut $5.8M–$13.1M before Steam's cut	$29.99	16k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ManagementStrategy
Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.4M 3.7x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $10.3M–$27.6M after Steam's cut $18.7M–$42.5M before Steam's cut	$24.99	60k reviews Very Positive	SandboxBase-Building
Mini Metro 2015	Est. copies ≈ 819k–1.3M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.3M–$6.1M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.3M before Steam's cut	$9.99	17k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	StrategyPuzzle
Voidtrain 2025	Est. copies ≈ 247k–402k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $2.0M–$5.5M after Steam's cut $3.7M–$8.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	10k reviews Mostly Positive	Open World Survival CraftCo-op
Factory Town 2021	Est. copies ≈ 111k–181k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $612k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	4k reviews Very Positive	AutomationBase-Building