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How many copies did Shuyan Saga™ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 19k–30k
$77k–$207k after Steam's cut $140k–$319k before Steam's cut
from 543 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Shuyan Saga™ and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Shuyan Saga™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 264k–495k
best case 1.1M (Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony)
Games like Shuyan Saga™

A typical game among these

≈ 264k–495k copies

≈ $2.0M–$2.8M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony at ≈ 806k–1.3M copies, ≈ $8.9M–$23.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Female Protagonist (8 of 8) and Visual Novel (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Visual Novel + Female Protagonist, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Free to Play + Psychological Horror + Detective; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Long Live The Queen
2013
Est. copies
≈ 453k–736k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelPolitical Sim
WITCH ON THE HOLY NIGHT
2023
Est. copies
≈ 216k–351k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$2.4M–$6.4M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
9k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelAnime
missed messages.
2019
Est. copies
≈ 448k–728k
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
16k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Free to PlayVisual Novel
Marco & The Galaxy Dragon
2020
Est. copies
≈ 196k–319k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelAnime
The Cosmic Wheel Sisterhood
2023
Est. copies
≈ 159k–258k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$786k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
$17.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
Interactive FictionFemale Protagonist
OPUS: Echo of Starsong - Full Bloom Edition
2021
Est. copies
≈ 235k–382k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.3M after Steam's cut $2.9M–$6.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
9k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelEmotional
Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony
2017
Est. copies
≈ 806k–1.3M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$23.8M after Steam's cut $16.1M–$36.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
23k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelDetective
Hatoful Boyfriend
2014
Est. copies
≈ 425k–690k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.8M before Steam's cut
$9.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelDating Sim

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