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How many copies did NEXT JUMP: Shmup Tactics sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 12k–20k
$13k–$36k after Steam's cut $24k–$55k before Steam's cut
from 352 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid NEXT JUMP: Shmup Tactics and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including NEXT JUMP: Shmup Tactics's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 881k–1.3M
best case 8.3M (Slay the Spire)
Games like NEXT JUMP: Shmup Tactics

A typical game among these

≈ 881k–1.3M copies

≈ $5.7M–$13.6M after Steam's cut

from ~27k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Slay the Spire at ≈ 6.3M–10.3M copies, ≈ $43.5M–$116.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 8k reviews in their first month; the range was 6k to 21k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rogue-like (6 of 8) and Turn-Based (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Rogue-like, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Card Game + Roguelike Deckbuilder + Deckbuilding; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Balatro
2024
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.1M
7.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$20.5M–$55.0M after Steam's cut $37.2M–$84.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
200k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Battle Brothers
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.3M–$22.2M after Steam's cut $15.0M–$34.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRPG
Wildermyth
2021
Est. copies
≈ 454k–737k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.1M–$8.4M after Steam's cut $5.7M–$12.9M before Steam's cut
$24.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
Party-Based RPGChoices Matter
Slay the Spire
2019
Est. copies
≈ 6.3M–10.3M
8.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$43.5M–$116.9M after Steam's cut $79.0M–$179.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
220k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Darkest Dungeon®
2016
Est. copies
≈ 6.8M–11.0M
6.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$46.5M–$125.1M after Steam's cut $84.6M–$192.5M before Steam's cut
$24.99
163k reviews
Very Positive
Turn-Based CombatDark Fantasy
For The King
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.2M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$7.3M–$19.7M after Steam's cut $13.3M–$30.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
44k reviews
Very Positive
RPGOnline Co-Op
Darkest Dungeon® II
2023
Est. copies
≈ 671k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.4M–$19.9M after Steam's cut $13.4M–$30.5M before Steam's cut
$39.99
27k reviews
Mostly Positive
Into the Breach
2018
Est. copies
≈ 682k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.