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How many copies did The LEGO® NINJAGO® Movie Video Game sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 280k–456k
$1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.4M before Steam's cut
from 8k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The LEGO® NINJAGO® Movie Video Game and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The LEGO® NINJAGO® Movie Video Game's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.4M–15.5M
best case 56.3M (Warframe)
Games like The LEGO® NINJAGO® Movie Video Game

A typical game among these

≈ 4.4M–15.5M copies

≈ $44.7M–$81.9M after Steam's cut

from ~133k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Third Person (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Warframe at ≈ 42.9M–69.7M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Third Person (3 of 8) and Action RPG (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action RPG + Looter Shooter.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2000 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 4
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$20.8M–$55.8M after Steam's cut $37.8M–$85.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
91k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeFighting
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition
2019
Est. copies
≈ 10.3M–16.7M
2.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$169.4M–$455.5M after Steam's cut $308.0M–$700.8M before Steam's cut
$59.99
357k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Souls-likeDifficult
Katana ZERO
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$9.0M–$24.3M after Steam's cut $16.4M–$37.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsAction
METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$41.1M–$110.6M after Steam's cut $74.8M–$170.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
89k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Great SoundtrackHack and Slash
MONSTER HUNTER RISE
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut $63.0M–$143.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
127k reviews
Very Positive
ActionHunting
Counter-Strike
2000
Est. copies
≈ 16.6M–26.9M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$45.5M–$122.3M after Steam's cut $82.7M–$188.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
262k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ActionFPS
Warframe
2013
Est. copies
≈ 42.9M–69.7M
5.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
678k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayAction RPG
Stumble Guys
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
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139k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayBattle Royale

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