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How many copies did Dungeons & Geese sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$515–$1k after Steam's cut $937–$2k before Steam's cut
from 55 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Dungeons & Geese and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dungeons & Geese's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 7.6M–25.0M
best case 57.5M (The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered)
Games like Dungeons & Geese

A typical game among these

≈ 7.6M–25.0M copies

≈ $78.9M–$519.5M after Steam's cut

from ~264k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered at ≈ 43.8M–71.2M copies, ≈ $602.5M–$1620.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 8k reviews in their first month; the range was 84 to 268k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (8 of 8) and Choices Matter (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Story Rich, priced around $50.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Baldur's Gate 3
2023
Est. copies
≈ 21.3M–34.6M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut $639.2M–$1454.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
859k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPGCharacter Customization
Detroit: Become Human
2020
Est. copies
≈ 6.6M–10.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$72.1M–$193.9M after Steam's cut $131.1M–$298.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
264k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Choices MatterStory Rich
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered
2015
Est. copies
≈ 43.8M–71.2M
3.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$602.5M–$1620.0M after Steam's cut $1095.5M–$2492.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
898k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldRPG
The Walking Dead
2012
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.0M–$56.5M after Steam's cut $38.2M–$86.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
81k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesStory Rich
Undertale
2015
Est. copies
≈ 16.8M–27.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$46.0M–$123.8M after Steam's cut $83.7M–$190.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
343k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Great SoundtrackStory Rich
Lost Words: Beyond the Page
2021
Est. copies
≈ 21k–34k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$86k–$230k after Steam's cut $156k–$354k before Steam's cut
$14.99
837 reviews
Very Positive
Side ScrollerPuzzle-Platformer
Life is Strange - Episode 1
2015
Est. copies
≈ 8.6M–14.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
176k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichChoices Matter
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$41.7M–$112.0M after Steam's cut $75.8M–$172.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
132k reviews
Very Positive

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