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How big is Protoball?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 3k–5k
from 122 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Protoball and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Protoball's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.8M–3.6M
best case 12.2M (VRChat)
Games like Protoball

A typical game among these

≈ 2.8M–3.6M copies

≈ $24.4M–$37.1M after Steam's cut

from ~81k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Sports (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: VRChat at ≈ 9.3M–15.1M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 18k reviews in their first month; the range was 14k to 26k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sports (4 of 8) and VR (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with VR, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry VR + Anime + Memes; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

VRChat
2017
Est. copies
≈ 9.3M–15.1M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
269k reviews
Mostly Positive
VRFree to Play
Rec Room
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.1M–3.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
84k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayVR
Beat Saber
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
VRRhythm
CarX Drift Racing Online
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.1M–5.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.4M–$38.6M after Steam's cut $26.1M–$59.4M before Steam's cut
$16.99
89k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RacingPhysics
Golf With Your Friends
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.9M–$69.5M after Steam's cut $47.0M–$107.0M before Steam's cut
$49.99
76k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerCasual
Fishing Planet
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
78k reviews
Very Positive
FishingFree to Play
Assetto Corsa
2014
Est. copies
≈ 9.8M–15.9M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$53.8M–$144.6M after Steam's cut $97.8M–$222.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
175k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim
EA SPORTS FC™ 24
2023
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
111k reviews
Mixed
Football (Soccer)Sports

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