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How big is A Raven Monologue?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 83k–135k
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid A Raven Monologue and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including A Raven Monologue's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 10k–58k
best case 941k (Gorogoa)
Games like A Raven Monologue

A typical game among these

≈ 10k–58k copies

≈ $15k–$109k after Steam's cut

from ~453 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Gorogoa at ≈ 717k–1.2M copies, ≈ $3.0M–$7.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 24 reviews in their first month; the range was 5 to 68.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Short (5 of 8) and Hand-drawn (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Puzzle + Hand-drawn, priced around $15.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2021. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Gorogoa
2017
Est. copies
≈ 717k–1.2M
46x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$3.0M–$7.9M after Steam's cut $5.4M–$12.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
21k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzleHand-drawn
The Good Time Garden
2019
Est. copies
≈ 84k–137k
6.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
3k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Free to PlayIndie
The Franz Kafka Videogame
2017
Est. copies
≈ 31k–50k
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$59k–$158k after Steam's cut $107k–$244k before Steam's cut
$6.99
891 reviews
Mixed
AdventureSurreal
All You Can Eat
2017
Est. copies
≈ 15k–24k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$8k–$22k after Steam's cut $15k–$34k before Steam's cut
$1.99
438 reviews
Very Positive
AdventurePoint & Click
Pink Gum
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
$3.99
43 reviews
Positive
ExperimentalHand-drawn
Loot Grind Simulator
2020
Est. copies
≈ 9k–15k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
381 reviews
Mostly Positive
CasualShort
Sunlight
2021
Est. copies
≈ 12k–19k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$13k–$34k after Steam's cut $23k–$53k before Steam's cut
$3.99
468 reviews
Mostly Positive
AdventureExperimental
Sixth Extinction
2021
Est. copies
≈ 446–725
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
18 reviews
Positive
AdventureNarration

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