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How many copies did Chronicles of Vinland sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4k–7k
from 146 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Chronicles of Vinland and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Chronicles of Vinland's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 420k–880k
best case 6.9M (Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition)
Games like Chronicles of Vinland

A typical game among these

≈ 420k–880k copies

≈ $2.0M–$6.8M after Steam's cut

from ~13k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition at ≈ 5.3M–8.6M copies, ≈ $50.7M–$136.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 5k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 19k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share City Builder (5 of 8) and Medieval (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with RTS + Base-Building, priced around $37. The breakout hits carry Multiplayer + Base-Building + Singleplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition
2019
Est. copies
≈ 5.3M–8.6M
14x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$50.7M–$136.2M after Steam's cut $92.1M–$209.6M before Steam's cut
$34.99
183k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRTS
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
7.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$26.1M–$70.3M after Steam's cut $47.5M–$108.1M before Steam's cut
$39.99
96k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRTS
Stronghold Crusader HD (2012)
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.2M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.7M–$9.9M after Steam's cut $6.7M–$15.2M before Steam's cut
$9.99
21k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MilitaryCity Builder
Stronghold HD (2012)
2013
Est. copies
≈ 661k–1.1M
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut
$5.99
10k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Real Time TacticsCity Builder
Project Hospital
2018
Est. copies
≈ 286k–464k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.0M–$5.3M after Steam's cut $3.6M–$8.1M before Steam's cut
$24.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
Medical SimCity Builder
OpenTTD
2021
Est. copies
≈ 422k–686k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
17k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationBuilding
Stronghold: Definitive Edition
2023
Est. copies
≈ 258k–419k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
City BuilderStrategy
Cossacks 3
2016
Est. copies
≈ 674k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.7M–$10.0M after Steam's cut $6.7M–$15.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRTS

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