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How many copies did Hello Charlotte EP3: Childhood's End sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 106k–172k
$116k–$312k after Steam's cut $211k–$481k before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Hello Charlotte EP3: Childhood's End and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hello Charlotte EP3: Childhood's End's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.4M–6.6M
best case 9.1M (Resident Evil 4)
Games like Hello Charlotte EP3: Childhood's End

A typical game among these

≈ 3.4M–6.6M copies

≈ $42.0M–$78.7M after Steam's cut

from ~132k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Resident Evil 4 at ≈ 7.0M–11.3M copies, ≈ $76.4M–$205.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 34k reviews in their first month; the range was 14k to 68k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Horror (7 of 8) and First-Person (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Survival Horror, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Doki Doki Literature Club!
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.9M–12.8M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
229k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Resident Evil Village
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut $76.8M–$174.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
155k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Outlast 2
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.2M–$32.9M after Steam's cut $22.2M–$50.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
65k reviews
Very Positive
Resident Evil 7 Biohazard
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.1M–$64.9M after Steam's cut $43.9M–$99.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
128k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SOMA
2015
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.4M–$57.4M after Steam's cut $38.8M–$88.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Half-Life: Alyx
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$43.2M–$116.1M after Steam's cut $78.5M–$178.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
106k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
VRFPS
Resident Evil 4
2023
Est. copies
≈ 7.0M–11.3M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$76.4M–$205.5M after Steam's cut $139.0M–$316.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
280k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorAction
Metro Exodus
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$27.9M–$74.9M after Steam's cut $50.7M–$115.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
136k reviews
Very Positive
Post-apocalypticFPS

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