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How many copies did Telling Lies sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 38k–62k
$210k–$564k after Steam's cut $381k–$868k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Telling Lies and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Telling Lies's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 99k–260k
best case 668k (Her Story)
Games like Telling Lies

A typical game among these

≈ 99k–260k copies

≈ $337k–$1.3M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Her Story at ≈ 509k–827k copies, ≈ $1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 538 reviews in their first month; the range was 331 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Point & Click (5 of 8) and Detective (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Investigation + Typing, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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The Complex
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2.2x vs typical
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Choose Your Own AdventureFMV
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ExplorationPoint & Click
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2.5x vs typical
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AdventureText-Based

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