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How many copies did X-COM: Apocalypse sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 61k–99k
$83k–$224k after Steam's cut $152k–$345k before Steam's cut
from 961 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid X-COM: Apocalypse and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including X-COM: Apocalypse's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.1M–2.5M
best case 6.0M (XCOM® 2)
Games like X-COM: Apocalypse

A typical game among these

≈ 1.1M–2.5M copies

≈ $6.8M–$26.8M after Steam's cut

from ~23k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: XCOM® 2 at ≈ 4.6M–7.4M copies, ≈ $25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Turn-Based (8 of 8) and Sci-fi (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Isometric + Turn-Based Combat, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

XCOM: Enemy Unknown
2012
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.0M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.3M–$41.1M after Steam's cut $27.8M–$63.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
59k reviews
Very Positive
Turn-Based StrategyTactical
XCOM® 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.6M–7.4M
4.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut $45.6M–$103.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
110k reviews
Very Positive
IsometricTurn-Based Combat
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus
2018
Est. copies
≈ 445k–723k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.7M–$9.9M after Steam's cut $6.7M–$15.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
Warhammer 40KStrategy
Shadowrun Returns
2013
Est. copies
≈ 884k–1.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$3.6M–$9.8M after Steam's cut $6.6M–$15.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
RPGCyberpunk
ENDLESS Legend™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$8.8M–$23.7M after Steam's cut $16.0M–$36.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
Strategy4X
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$14.3M–$38.4M after Steam's cut $26.0M–$59.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
23k reviews
Mixed
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
BATTLETECH
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.1M–$29.9M after Steam's cut $20.2M–$46.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
33k reviews
Very Positive
MechsStrategy
XCOM®: Chimera Squad
2020
Est. copies
≈ 582k–947k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.3M after Steam's cut $2.9M–$6.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
23k reviews
Mostly Positive

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