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How many copies did 永远消失的幻想乡 ～ The Disappearing of Gensokyo sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 109k–177k
$329k–$885k after Steam's cut $598k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid 永远消失的幻想乡 ～ The Disappearing of Gensokyo and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including 永远消失的幻想乡 ～ The Disappearing of Gensokyo's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 515k–1.6M
best case 6.9M (NieR:Automata™)
Games like 永远消失的幻想乡 ～ The Disappearing of Gensokyo

A typical game among these

≈ 515k–1.6M copies

≈ $2.4M–$8.3M after Steam's cut

from ~15k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Bullet Hell (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: NieR:Automata™ at ≈ 5.3M–8.6M copies, ≈ $58.2M–$156.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Bullet Hell (4 of 8) and Anime (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Story Rich + Female Protagonist, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Garfield Kart
2015
Est. copies
≈ 691k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$948k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.9M before Steam's cut		 $4.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
Cult ClassicCombat Racing
Rabi-Ribi
2016
Est. copies
≈ 511k–830k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.8M after Steam's cut $4.6M–$10.4M before Steam's cut		 $17.99
12k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AnimeMetroidvania
HoloCure - Save the Fans!
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free		 Free
41k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsBullet Hell
Touhou Luna Nights
2019
Est. copies
≈ 432k–701k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$8.8M before Steam's cut		 $17.99
15k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MetroidvaniaDifficult
UNO
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before Steam's cut		 $9.99
54k reviews
Mostly Positive
Card GameMultiplayer
One Step From Eden
2020
Est. copies
≈ 190k–309k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.8M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.3M before Steam's cut		 $19.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeDifficult
DEEP SPACE WAIFU
2017
Est. copies
≈ 275k–446k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free		 Free
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
NieR:Automata™
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.3M–8.6M
11x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$58.2M–$156.5M after Steam's cut $105.8M–$240.7M before Steam's cut		 $39.99
154k reviews
Very Positive
Great SoundtrackStory Rich

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.