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How many copies did Umfend sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 21k–35k
$59k–$158k after Steam's cut $107k–$243k before Steam's cut
from 704 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Umfend and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Umfend's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.8M–3.7M
best case 27.4M (Phasmophobia)
Games like Umfend

A typical game among these

≈ 1.8M–3.7M copies

≈ $7.2M–$22.7M after Steam's cut

from ~43k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Phasmophobia at ≈ 20.9M–33.9M copies, ≈ $114.8M–$308.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (8 of 8) and Horror (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Psychological Horror, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Supernatural + VR + Online Co-Op; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Outlast 2
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.2M–$32.9M after Steam's cut $22.2M–$50.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
65k reviews
Very Positive
Amnesia: The Dark Descent
2010
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.4M–$33.4M after Steam's cut $22.6M–$51.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorGore
Pacify
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut
$4.99
43k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorOnline Co-Op
Phasmophobia
2020
Est. copies
≈ 20.9M–33.9M
20x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$114.8M–$308.5M after Steam's cut $208.6M–$474.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
842k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorOnline Co-Op
Five Nights at Freddy's
2014
Est. copies
≈ 3.3M–5.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.6M–$12.3M after Steam's cut $8.3M–$18.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
59k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorSingleplayer
Layers of Fear (2016)
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.3M–$17.1M after Steam's cut $11.5M–$26.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
28k reviews
Very Positive
Outlast
2013
Est. copies
≈ 8.8M–14.4M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$36.4M–$98.0M after Steam's cut $66.3M–$150.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
140k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorFirst-Person
Five Nights at Freddy's 2
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.2M–$8.7M after Steam's cut $5.9M–$13.3M before Steam's cut
$7.99
26k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorSingleplayer

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