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How many copies did Scavenger SV-4 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 20k–33k
$83k–$224k after Steam's cut $152k–$345k before Steam's cut
from 666 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Scavenger SV-4 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Scavenger SV-4's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 154k–182k
best case 3.5M (Outer Wilds)
Games like Scavenger SV-4

A typical game among these

≈ 154k–182k copies

≈ $1.0M–$1.2M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Simulation (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Outer Wilds at ≈ 2.7M–4.4M copies, ≈ $18.5M–$49.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (4 of 8) and Space (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Exploration + Space, priced around $19. The breakout hits carry Multiplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2008 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Outer Wilds
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
38x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$18.5M–$49.7M after Steam's cut $33.6M–$76.4M before Steam's cut
$24.99
108k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ExplorationSpace
Moonbase Alpha
2010
Est. copies
≈ 813k–1.3M
4.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
13k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceSimulation
Viscera Cleanup Detail
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
8.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$11.1M after Steam's cut $7.5M–$17.1M before Steam's cut
$12.99
24k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationGore
Universe Sandbox Legacy
2011
Est. copies
≈ 188k–306k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
3k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationSandbox
SPORE™ Creepy & Cute Parts Pack
2008
Est. copies
≈ 139k–226k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$763k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationGod Game
The Hat Man: Shadow Ward
2016
Est. copies
≈ 138k–224k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$378k–$1.0M after Steam's cut $687k–$1.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
3k reviews
Mixed
HorrorIndie
Duskers
2016
Est. copies
≈ 117k–191k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$645k–$1.7M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
ExplorationTyping
The Solus Project
2016
Est. copies
≈ 109k–178k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$601k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Mostly Positive
SurvivalAdventure

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