How many copies did Paunch sell?

326k to 529k copies, based on its 11k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

How much revenue did Paunch make?

Paunch is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How big is Paunch?

Estimated players who have it: ≈ 326k–529k; from 11k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Paunch and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Paunch's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 10.8M–15.2M

best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)

Games like Paunch

A typical game among these

≈ 10.8M–15.2M copies

≈ $105.8M–$146.5M after Steam's cut

from ~332k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Anime (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 144k reviews in their first month; the range was 21k to 183k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Anime (4 of 8) and Co-op (2 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5. The breakout hits carry Mature + Utilities + Software; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2017 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
VRChat 2017	Est. copies ≈ 9.3M–15.1M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	269k reviews Mostly Positive	VRFree to Play
Wallpaper Engine 2018	Est. copies ≈ 31.0M–50.3M 3.1x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut	$4.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	MatureUtilities
Fall Guys 2020	Est. copies ≈ 11.6M–18.9M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	468k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerParty Game
Doki Doki Literature Club! 2017	Est. copies ≈ 7.9M–12.8M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	229k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Psychological Horror Visual Novel
Bloons TD 6 2018	Est. copies ≈ 12.0M–19.6M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $46.3M–$124.5M after Steam's cut $84.2M–$191.5M before Steam's cut	$13.99	396k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Tower DefenseStrategy
DARK SOULS™: REMASTERED 2018	Est. copies ≈ 4.8M–7.7M too small to compare SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $52.3M–$140.6M after Steam's cut $95.1M–$216.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	156k reviews Very Positive	Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Helltaker 2020	Est. copies ≈ 3.2M–5.2M too small to compare SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	128k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Free to PlayCute
Monster Hunter Wilds 2025	Est. copies ≈ 8.2M–13.4M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $90.5M–$243.4M after Steam's cut $164.6M–$374.4M before Steam's cut	$39.99	332k reviews Mixed	HuntingAction