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How many copies did The MISSING: J.J. Macfield and the Island of Memories sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 44k–71k
$361k–$969k after Steam's cut $656k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The MISSING: J.J. Macfield and the Island of Memories and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The MISSING: J.J. Macfield and the Island of Memories's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 356k–884k
best case 1.5M (Assassin's Creed Valhalla)
Games like The MISSING: J.J. Macfield and the Island of Memories

A typical game among these

≈ 356k–884k copies

≈ $1.8M–$10.9M after Steam's cut

from ~16k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Assassin's Creed Valhalla at ≈ 1.1M–1.8M copies, ≈ $18.5M–$49.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 800 reviews in their first month; the range was 611 to 5k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (5 of 8) and Choices Matter (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Vikings, priced around $60.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Genital Jousting
2018
Est. copies
≈ 343k–557k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$659k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before Steam's cut
$6.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Gears 5
2019
Est. copies
≈ 729k–1.2M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.0M–$16.2M after Steam's cut $10.9M–$24.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
25k reviews
Mostly Positive
ActionAdventure
The Walking Dead: The Final Season
2018
Est. copies
≈ 655k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.6M–$9.7M after Steam's cut $6.5M–$14.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
22k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichChoices Matter
BAD END THEATER
2021
Est. copies
≈ 250k–406k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$687k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.8M before Steam's cut
$9.99
10k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Multiple EndingsVisual Novel
Dragon Age™ Inquisition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 533k–866k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.9M–$15.8M after Steam's cut $10.7M–$24.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
21k reviews
Mostly Positive
RPGCharacter Customization
Marco & The Galaxy Dragon
2020
Est. copies
≈ 196k–319k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelAnime
Life is Strange Remastered
2022
Est. copies
≈ 279k–453k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$3.1M–$8.2M after Steam's cut $5.6M–$12.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
Choices MatterStory Rich
Assassin's Creed Valhalla
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$18.5M–$49.8M after Steam's cut $33.7M–$76.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
45k reviews
Mixed
Open WorldAction

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