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How many copies did Dwarf Defense sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$557–$1k after Steam's cut $1k–$2k before Steam's cut
from 41 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Dwarf Defense and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dwarf Defense's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 359k–794k
best case 4.9M (Total War: WARHAMMER III)
Games like Dwarf Defense

A typical game among these

≈ 359k–794k copies

≈ $4.4M–$7.4M after Steam's cut

from ~10k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Total War: WARHAMMER III at ≈ 3.7M–6.0M copies, ≈ $61.3M–$164.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Fantasy (6 of 8) and RTS (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based Strategy + Grand Strategy, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Grand Strategy + War + Turn-Based Strategy; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Total War: WARHAMMER III
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.0M
16x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$61.3M–$164.8M after Steam's cut $111.4M–$253.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
150k reviews
Mostly Positive
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
Total War: WARHAMMER
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.5M
5.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$35.9M–$96.6M after Steam's cut $65.3M–$148.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
52k reviews
Mostly Positive
StrategyFantasy
Age of Wonders III
2014
Est. copies
≈ 745k–1.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.1M–$16.5M after Steam's cut $11.2M–$25.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
13k reviews
Mostly Positive
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
Total War: WARHAMMER II
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
13x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$68.9M–$185.3M after Steam's cut $125.3M–$285.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
121k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyFantasy
LEGO® The Hobbit™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 598k–972k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.3M–$8.8M after Steam's cut $6.0M–$13.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
LEGOAdventure
Lord of the Rings: War in the North
2011
Est. copies
≈ 605k–984k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
10k reviews
Very Positive
RPGAction
Regions Of Ruin
2018
Est. copies
≈ 141k–230k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$466k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $848k–$1.9M before Steam's cut
$11.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
RPGAdventure
SpellForce 3 Reforced
2017
Est. copies
≈ 274k–445k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.0M–$8.1M after Steam's cut $5.5M–$12.4M before Steam's cut
$39.99
8k reviews
Mostly Positive
RPGStrategy

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