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How big is Thunderballs VR?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 372–605
from 15 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Thunderballs VR and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Thunderballs VR's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6k–100k
best case 780k (Hot Dogs, Horseshoes & Hand Grenades)
Games like Thunderballs VR

A typical game among these

≈ 6k–100k copies

≈ $64k–$593k after Steam's cut

from ~466 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Hot Dogs, Horseshoes & Hand Grenades at ≈ 594k–966k copies, ≈ $3.3M–$8.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 63 reviews in their first month; the range was 24 to 24k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share VR (8 of 8) and Physics (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Sandbox + VR, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2019 to 2026, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Hot Dogs, Horseshoes & Hand Grenades
2026
Est. copies
≈ 594k–966k
51x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.3M–$8.8M after Steam's cut $5.9M–$13.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
24k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxVR
Voxel Project VR
2025
Est. copies
≈ 9k–14k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$59k–$159k after Steam's cut $107k–$244k before Steam's cut
$24.99
346 reviews
Very Positive
DestructionVR
HARD BULLET
2020
Est. copies
≈ 163k–264k
14x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$894k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
VRGore
BRUTALISTICK VR
2024
Est. copies
≈ 48k–77k
4.1x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$131k–$352k after Steam's cut $238k–$542k before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
GoreAction
Disassembly VR
2019
Est. copies
≈ 5k–8k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$42k–$112k after Steam's cut $76k–$173k before Steam's cut
$29.99
176 reviews
Mixed
SimulationAction
Airborn
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2k–4k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$9k–$24k after Steam's cut $16k–$36k before Steam's cut
$12.99
99 reviews
Very Positive
ActionIndie
Crunch Element
2020
Est. copies
≈ 15k–24k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$80k–$214k after Steam's cut $145k–$330k before Steam's cut
$19.99
585 reviews
Mixed
FPSPvE
Kill It With Fire VR
2023
Est. copies
≈ 3k–5k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$14k–$37k after Steam's cut $25k–$56k before Steam's cut
$14.99
133 reviews
Very Positive
ActionCasual

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