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How big is Fly of butterfly?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 790–1k
from 26 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Fly of butterfly and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Fly of butterfly's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 228–6k
best case 182k (Heliborne Collection)
Games like Fly of butterfly

A typical game among these

≈ 228–6k copies

≈ $376–$15k after Steam's cut

from ~16 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: Heliborne Collection at ≈ 139k–225k copies, ≈ $1.1M–$3.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 4 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 95.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Fantasy (6 of 8) and Flight (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Military + Flight, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Hikeshi-Fireman-
2021
Est. copies
≈ 50–81
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$55–$147 after Steam's cut $100–$226 before Steam's cut
$3.99
2 reviews
2 user reviews
CasualExperimental
Dragon Expedition
2025
Est. copies
≈ 198–322
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$326–$878 after Steam's cut $593–$1k before Steam's cut
$5.99
8 reviews
8 user reviews
RPGDragons
VITATIO 3
2020
Est. copies
≈ 248–403
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
10 reviews
Mostly Positive
ActionCasual
The Mirum
2019
Est. copies
≈ 634–1k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$696–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
$3.99
22 reviews
Mixed
PuzzleEscape Room
Elmarion: Dragon time
2020
Est. copies
≈ 14k–23k
35x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$12k–$31k after Steam's cut $21k–$48k before Steam's cut
$2.99
564 reviews
Mostly Positive
DragonsFlight
Paladin's Lance
2021
Est. copies
≈ 99–161
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$81–$219 after Steam's cut $148–$337 before Steam's cut
$2.99
4 reviews
4 user reviews
ActionAdventure
Heliborne Collection
2017
Est. copies
≈ 139k–225k
252x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
MilitaryFlight
Elmarion: Dragon's Princess
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
4.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$5k–$14k after Steam's cut $9k–$21k before Steam's cut
$10.99
68 reviews
Mostly Positive
AdventureRPG

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