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How many copies did Heliborne Collection sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 139k–225k
$1.1M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.7M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Heliborne Collection and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Heliborne Collection's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 716k–2.1M
best case 65.2M (War Thunder)
Games like Heliborne Collection

A typical game among these

≈ 716k–2.1M copies

≈ $5.0M–$17.0M after Steam's cut

from ~22k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: War Thunder at ≈ 49.7M–80.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Flight (8 of 8) and War (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Vehicular Combat. The breakout hits carry Vehicular Combat + Free to Play + Combat; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

War Thunder
2013
Est. copies
≈ 49.7M–80.7M
35x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
786k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlaySimulation
Bomber Crew
2017
Est. copies
≈ 535k–869k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.4M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut
$15.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
World War IISimulation
Project Wingman
2020
Est. copies
≈ 556k–904k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.8M–$10.3M after Steam's cut $6.9M–$15.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
FlightAction
VTOL VR
2017
Est. copies
≈ 752k–1.2M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.2M–$16.7M after Steam's cut $11.3M–$25.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
22k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FlightVR
ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.7M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$27.1M–$72.7M after Steam's cut $49.2M–$111.9M before Steam's cut
$59.99
57k reviews
Very Positive
FlightJet
Microsoft Flight Simulator X: Steam Edition
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$10.2M–$27.5M after Steam's cut $18.6M–$42.2M before Steam's cut
$24.99
27k reviews
Very Positive
FlightSimulation
SimplePlanes
2015
Est. copies
≈ 533k–865k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.9M–$5.1M after Steam's cut $3.5M–$7.9M before Steam's cut
$12.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
FlightSandbox
DCS World Steam Edition
2013
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
41k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationFlight

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