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How many copies did Gibbous - A Cthulhu Adventure sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 66k–108k
$365k–$981k after Steam's cut $664k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Gibbous - A Cthulhu Adventure and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Gibbous - A Cthulhu Adventure's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 10.5M–22.8M
best case 38.8M (Portal 2)
Games like Gibbous - A Cthulhu Adventure

A typical game among these

≈ 10.5M–22.8M copies

≈ $110.2M–$161.5M after Steam's cut

from ~271k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Story Rich (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Portal 2 at ≈ 29.5M–48.0M copies, ≈ $81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 16k reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 171k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (4 of 8) and Female Protagonist (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Platformer + Puzzle, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2004 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Resident Evil 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 6.5M–10.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$70.9M–$190.7M after Steam's cut $129.0M–$293.4M before Steam's cut
$39.99
224k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesSurvival Horror
Portal
2007
Est. copies
≈ 12.6M–20.5M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut $63.0M–$143.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
199k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzlePuzzle-Platformer
Half-Life 2
2004
Est. copies
≈ 17.7M–28.8M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut $88.4M–$201.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
280k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSAction
Play minigames with Reiko
2023
Est. copies
≈ 25–40
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$41–$109 after Steam's cut $75–$168 before Steam's cut
$5.99
1 reviews
1 user reviews
Early AccessAnime
It Takes Two
2021
Est. copies
≈ 6.7M–10.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$73.7M–$198.3M after Steam's cut $134.1M–$305.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
270k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Co-opMultiplayer
Tomb Raider Game of the Year
2013
Est. copies
≈ 17.1M–27.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$94.0M–$252.8M after Steam's cut $171.0M–$388.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
271k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureAction
Portal 2
2011
Est. copies
≈ 29.5M–48.0M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut $147.5M–$335.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
467k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Hogwarts Legacy
2023
Est. copies
≈ 9.3M–15.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$153.2M–$412.0M after Steam's cut $278.6M–$633.8M before Steam's cut
$59.99
375k reviews
Very Positive
MagicOpen World

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