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How many copies did The Uncertain: Light At The End sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 31k–50k
$84k–$227k after Steam's cut $153k–$349k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Uncertain: Light At The End and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Uncertain: Light At The End's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.5M–2.5M
best case 8.6M (Detroit: Become Human)
Games like The Uncertain: Light At The End

A typical game among these

≈ 1.5M–2.5M copies

≈ $17.1M–$29.4M after Steam's cut

from ~42k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Detroit: Become Human at ≈ 6.6M–10.7M copies, ≈ $72.1M–$193.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 8k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 88k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (7 of 8) and Cinematic (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + FPS, priced around $50. The breakout hits carry Open World + FPS + Post-apocalyptic; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl
2024
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
3.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$57.8M–$155.4M after Steam's cut $105.1M–$239.2M before Steam's cut
$59.99
141k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldFPS
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$16.5M–$44.4M after Steam's cut $30.0M–$68.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
48k reviews
Very Positive
Character CustomizationCinematic
Beyond: Two Souls
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.0M–$16.0M after Steam's cut $10.9M–$24.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
44k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureChoices Matter
Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$18.6M–$50.0M after Steam's cut $33.8M–$77.0M before Steam's cut
$59.99
45k reviews
Very Positive
SingleplayerStory Rich
The Wolf Among Us
2013
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.5M–$28.2M after Steam's cut $19.1M–$43.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
40k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureDetective
Detroit: Become Human
2020
Est. copies
≈ 6.6M–10.7M
6.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$72.1M–$193.9M after Steam's cut $131.1M–$298.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
264k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Choices MatterStory Rich
The Walking Dead: Season Two
2013
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$23.8M after Steam's cut $16.1M–$36.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
34k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesAdventure
Quantum Break
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$14.2M–$38.3M after Steam's cut $25.9M–$58.9M before Steam's cut
$39.99
31k reviews
Very Positive
ActionStory Rich

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