How much revenue did The Dream Machine: Chapter 1 & 2 make?

$156k–$420k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did The Dream Machine: Chapter 1 & 2 sell?

Q: How many copies did The Dream Machine: Chapter 1 & 2 sell?

142k to 231k copies, based on its 2k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 142k–231k; $156k–$420k after Steam's cut $284k–$646k before Steam's cut; from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Dream Machine: Chapter 1 & 2 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Dream Machine: Chapter 1 & 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.8M–2.9M

best case 25.6M (Hollow Knight)

Games like The Dream Machine: Chapter 1 & 2

A typical game among these

≈ 1.8M–2.9M copies

≈ $15.8M–$21.3M after Steam's cut

from ~60k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Platformer (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Hollow Knight at ≈ 19.5M–31.6M copies, ≈ $80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 32k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 208k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Platformer (3 of 8) and Automobile Sim (2 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Management + Simulation, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Multiplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
GRIS 2018	Est. copies ≈ 2.9M–4.8M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.0M before Steam's cut	$14.99	96k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	BeautifulAtmospheric
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal 2023	Est. copies ≈ 5.6M–9.1M 3.8x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $30.6M–$82.4M after Steam's cut $55.7M–$126.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	225k reviews Mixed	ManagementSingleplayer
Grand Theft Auto IV: Complete Edition unreleased	Est. copies ≈ 5.1M–8.2M 3.4x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	204k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
The Henry Stickmin Collection 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $6.1M–$16.4M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.3M before Steam's cut	$14.99	60k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FunnyMultiple Endings
Hollow Knight 2017	Est. copies ≈ 19.5M–31.6M 9.5x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut $145.9M–$332.0M before Steam's cut	$14.99	566k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Metroidvania Souls-like
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition 2020	Est. copies ≈ 5.1M–8.3M 3.4x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $27.9M–$75.1M after Steam's cut $50.8M–$115.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	205k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.2M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $11.0M–$29.5M after Steam's cut $20.0M–$45.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	54k reviews Very Positive	EmotionalStory Rich
Cuphead 2017	Est. copies ≈ 7.6M–12.4M 3.7x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $41.9M–$112.7M after Steam's cut $76.2M–$173.4M before Steam's cut	$19.99	222k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	DifficultCartoon