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How many copies did Axiom Verge 2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 24k–39k
$133k–$358k after Steam's cut $242k–$552k before Steam's cut
from 978 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Axiom Verge 2 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Axiom Verge 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 493k–653k
best case 5.9M (Celeste)
Games like Axiom Verge 2

A typical game among these

≈ 493k–653k copies

≈ $2.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut

from ~12k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Celeste at ≈ 4.5M–7.4M copies, ≈ $24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Platformer (6 of 8) and Metroidvania (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Precision Platformer + Platformer, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Difficult; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

VVVVVV
2010
Est. copies
≈ 667k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$916k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.8M before Steam's cut
$4.99
11k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsPrecision Platformer
Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
12x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut $45.3M–$103.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
149k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Blasphemous 2
2023
Est. copies
≈ 540k–878k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.7M–$18.0M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.6M before Steam's cut
$44.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
CombatFantasy
The Messenger
2018
Est. copies
≈ 404k–656k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$6.0M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
RetroPlatformer
Rogue Legacy 2
2022
Est. copies
≈ 376k–611k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$6.9M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
ArcadeMetroidvania
SteamWorld Dig 2
2017
Est. copies
≈ 314k–510k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
9k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureMetroidvania
Momodora: Reverie Under The Moonlight
2016
Est. copies
≈ 498k–809k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.7M before Steam's cut
$9.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
Metroidvania2D Platformer
Rain World
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
4.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.6M–$36.7M after Steam's cut $24.8M–$56.4M before Steam's cut
$24.99
58k reviews
Very Positive
DifficultAtmospheric

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