How much revenue did Kerbal Space Program 2 make?

$10.9M–$29.4M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Kerbal Space Program 2 sell?

Q: How many copies did Kerbal Space Program 2 sell?

794k to 1.3M copies, based on its 32k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 794k–1.3M; $10.9M–$29.4M after Steam's cut $19.9M–$45.2M before Steam's cut; from 32k reviews (Mostly Negative)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Kerbal Space Program 2 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Kerbal Space Program 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.7M–8.2M

best case 23.0M (No Man's Sky)

Games like Kerbal Space Program 2

A typical game among these

≈ 5.7M–8.2M copies

≈ $49.6M–$103.4M after Steam's cut

from ~139k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: No Man's Sky at ≈ 17.5M–28.5M copies, ≈ $289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Space (7 of 8) and Exploration (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Open World Survival Craft, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Procedural Generation + Adventure + Open World Survival Craft; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2008 to 2019, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Elite Dangerous 2015	Est. copies ≈ 5.3M–8.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $28.9M–$77.8M after Steam's cut $52.6M–$119.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	108k reviews Mostly Positive	Space SimSpace
Starbound 2016	Est. copies ≈ 5.1M–8.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.1M–$56.9M after Steam's cut $38.4M–$87.5M before Steam's cut	$14.99	123k reviews Very Positive	Open World Survival CraftSandbox
Stellaris 2016	Est. copies ≈ 8.2M–13.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut $204.7M–$465.6M before Steam's cut	$49.99	197k reviews Very Positive	SpaceGrand Strategy
ASTRONEER 2019	Est. copies ≈ 4.0M–6.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $33.1M–$89.1M after Steam's cut $60.2M–$137.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	139k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerOpen World
SPORE™ 2008	Est. copies ≈ 4.6M–7.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $25.3M–$68.0M after Steam's cut $46.0M–$104.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	73k reviews Very Positive	God GameOpen World
Kerbal Space Program 2015	Est. copies ≈ 7.2M–11.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $79.0M–$212.3M after Steam's cut $143.6M–$326.6M before Steam's cut	$39.99	147k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SpaceSimulation
No Man's Sky 2016	Est. copies ≈ 17.5M–28.5M 3.0x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut $526.0M–$1196.6M before Steam's cut	$59.99	422k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldOpen World Survival Craft
Oxygen Not Included 2019	Est. copies ≈ 4.1M–6.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $28.5M–$76.7M after Steam's cut $51.9M–$118.0M before Steam's cut	$24.99	144k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Colony SimBase-Building