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How many copies did The Misadventure Of Melon sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 317–515
$609–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
from 11 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Misadventure Of Melon and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Misadventure Of Melon's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.4M–2.9M
best case 47.6M (Geometry Dash)
Games like The Misadventure Of Melon

A typical game among these

≈ 1.4M–2.9M copies

≈ $6.7M–$16.4M after Steam's cut

from ~29k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Platformer (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Geometry Dash at ≈ 36.2M–58.9M copies, ≈ $49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Platformer (3 of 8) and Beat 'em up (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Music + Level Editor, priced around $5. The breakout hits carry Difficult + Music + Level Editor; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Castle Crashers®
2012
Est. copies
≈ 8.9M–14.5M
4.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$36.7M–$98.7M after Steam's cut $66.8M–$151.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
141k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2DOnline Co-Op
Streets of Rage 4
2020
Est. copies
≈ 490k–797k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.4M–$9.1M after Steam's cut $6.1M–$13.9M before Steam's cut
$24.99
20k reviews
Very Positive
ActionBeat 'em up
Broforce
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.3M–$33.0M after Steam's cut $22.3M–$50.8M before Steam's cut
$14.99
61k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AmericaAction
Sonic Mania
2017
Est. copies
≈ 995k–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
Great Soundtrack2D
Geometry Dash
2014
Est. copies
≈ 36.2M–58.9M
22x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut $90.4M–$205.7M before Steam's cut
$4.99
647k reviews
Very Positive
DifficultMusic
ROUNDS
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.9M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.6M before Steam's cut
$5.99
45k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MultiplayerFighting
Rogue Legacy
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.2M after Steam's cut $8.9M–$20.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
RoguevaniaPlatformer
FlatOut 2
2006
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.9M–$10.4M after Steam's cut $7.0M–$16.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
22k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RacingCombat Racing

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