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How many copies did Trans-Siberian Railway Simulator sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 48k–79k
$266k–$716k after Steam's cut $484k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Trans-Siberian Railway Simulator and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Trans-Siberian Railway Simulator's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 360k–1.3M
best case 7.7M (Factorio)
Games like Trans-Siberian Railway Simulator

A typical game among these

≈ 360k–1.3M copies

≈ $4.1M–$15.1M after Steam's cut

from ~16k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Base-Building (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Factorio at ≈ 5.9M–9.5M copies, ≈ $56.4M–$151.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 13k reviews in their first month; the range was 5k to 86k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Base-Building (4 of 8) and Building (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Automation + Base-Building, priced around $35.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Factorio
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.9M–9.5M
15x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$56.4M–$151.5M after Steam's cut $102.5M–$233.1M before Steam's cut
$35.00
236k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationBase-Building
Derail Valley
2019
Est. copies
≈ 283k–460k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.1M–$8.4M after Steam's cut $5.7M–$12.9M before Steam's cut
$39.99
10k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Early AccessTrains
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic
2024
Est. copies
≈ 682k–1.1M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.5M–$20.2M after Steam's cut $13.6M–$31.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
27k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySimulation
Mini Metro
2015
Est. copies
≈ 819k–1.3M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.1M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
17k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StrategyPuzzle
Stormworks: Build and Rescue
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.3M–$27.6M after Steam's cut $18.7M–$42.5M before Steam's cut
$24.99
60k reviews
Very Positive
SandboxBase-Building
shapez 2 - Factory
2026
Est. copies
≈ 385k–625k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$3.2M–$8.5M after Steam's cut $5.8M–$13.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
16k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ManagementStrategy
Voidtrain
2025
Est. copies
≈ 247k–402k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.0M–$5.5M after Steam's cut $3.7M–$8.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
10k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open World Survival CraftCo-op
Railroads Online
2024
Est. copies
≈ 150k–244k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
6k reviews
Mostly Positive
TrainsMultiplayer

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