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How many copies did Chaos Caves sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 144–234
$237–$638 after Steam's cut $431–$981 before Steam's cut
from 5 reviews (5 user reviews)
Only 5 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Chaos Caves and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Chaos Caves's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 35k–41k
best case 46k (DAVIGO: VR vs. PC)
Games like Chaos Caves

A typical game among these

≈ 35k–41k copies

≈ $203k–$325k after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: DAVIGO: VR vs. PC at ≈ 35k–57k copies, ≈ $240k–$644k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 50 reviews in their first month; the range was 5 to 339.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 4 Player Local (6 of 8) and Physics (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with VR + Asymmetric VR, priced around $25.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Early AccessVR

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