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How many copies did Nigate Tale sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 24k–39k
$132k–$356k after Steam's cut $241k–$548k before Steam's cut
from 971 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Nigate Tale and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Nigate Tale's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 433k–863k
best case 2.9M (Noita)
Games like Nigate Tale

A typical game among these

≈ 433k–863k copies

≈ $2.7M–$6.4M after Steam's cut

from ~17k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Noita at ≈ 2.2M–3.6M copies, ≈ $12.1M–$32.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 10k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 17k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rogue-like (6 of 8) and Action Roguelike (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Physics + Rogue-like, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Physics + Open World + Sandbox; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2026, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Magicraft
2024
Est. copies
≈ 419k–681k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$5.0M after Steam's cut $3.4M–$7.6M before Steam's cut
$15.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-lite
Chronicon
2020
Est. copies
≈ 241k–392k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$928k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.8M before Steam's cut
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10k reviews
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LootAction RPG
Noita
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
5.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.6M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
89k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PhysicsRogue-like
Children of Morta
2019
Est. copies
≈ 674k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$11.0M after Steam's cut $7.4M–$16.9M before Steam's cut
$21.99
23k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerRogue-like
The Spell Brigade
2026
Est. copies
≈ 419k–682k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
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$12.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeOnline Co-Op
Wizard of Legend
2018
Est. copies
≈ 641k–1.0M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.7M before Steam's cut
$15.99
21k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikePixel Graphics
Crypt of the NecroDancer
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.3M–$14.3M after Steam's cut $9.7M–$22.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
27k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RhythmFemale Protagonist
Astral Ascent
2023
Est. copies
≈ 213k–346k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.1M before Steam's cut
$24.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-lite

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