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How many copies did 狼と香辛料VR/Spice&WolfVR sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 35k–57k
$242k–$650k after Steam's cut $440k–$1.0M before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid 狼と香辛料VR/Spice&WolfVR and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including 狼と香辛料VR/Spice&WolfVR's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.2M–3.0M
best case 12.2M (VRChat)
Games like 狼と香辛料VR/Spice&WolfVR

A typical game among these

≈ 2.2M–3.0M copies

≈ $8.4M–$28.6M after Steam's cut

from ~76k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Simulation (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: VRChat at ≈ 9.3M–15.1M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (3 of 8) and VR (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with VR + Anime.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

SteamVR
unreleased
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≈ 2.2M–3.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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Free
Free
87k reviews
Very Positive
VRSoftware
Totally Accurate Battlegrounds
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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Free
88k reviews
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MultiplayerPhysics
Beat Saber
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
VRRhythm
We Were Here
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
33k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayCo-op
UNO
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before Steam's cut
$9.99
54k reviews
Mostly Positive
Card GameMultiplayer
VRChat
2017
Est. copies
≈ 9.3M–15.1M
3.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
269k reviews
Mostly Positive
VRFree to Play
Surgeon Simulator
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.9M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.2M before Steam's cut
$9.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationFunny
Golf With Your Friends
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.9M–$69.5M after Steam's cut $47.0M–$107.0M before Steam's cut
$49.99
76k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerCasual

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