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How many copies did Watchers sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 16k–27k
from 569 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Watchers and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Watchers's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k–4.1M
best case 10.7M (Hotline Miami)
Games like Watchers

A typical game among these

≈ 2k–4.1M copies

≈ $9k–$32.7M after Steam's cut

from ~965 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Hotline Miami at ≈ 8.1M–13.2M copies, ≈ $22.3M–$60.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 7 reviews in their first month; the range was 6 to 9.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Battle Royale (6 of 8) and Shooter (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Violent + Top-Down, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Hotline Miami
2012
Est. copies
≈ 8.1M–13.2M
133x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.3M–$60.0M after Steam's cut $40.6M–$92.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
128k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Great SoundtrackViolent
Zombie Shooter: Ares Virus
2022
Est. copies
≈ 5k–7k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$6k–$17k after Steam's cut $11k–$26k before Steam's cut
$4.99
185 reviews
Mostly Negative
ZombiesShooter
Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.9M–6.4M
83x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$16.2M–$43.5M after Steam's cut $29.4M–$66.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
80k reviews
Very Positive
Great SoundtrackGore
Rapture Rejects
2018
Est. copies
≈ 53k–86k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2k reviews
Mostly Negative
Early AccessBattle Royale
Ring of Elysium
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.6M
103x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
99k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayBattle Royale
Outworld Battlegrounds
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
63 reviews
Very Positive
ActionIndie
AimGoGoGo
2021
Est. copies
≈ 372–605
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$510–$1k after Steam's cut $928–$2k before Steam's cut
$4.99
15 reviews
Positive
CasualAction
STIX: Combat Devolved
2022
Est. copies
≈ 298–484
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
12 reviews
Positive
ActionTop-Down Shooter

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.