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How many copies did Paradise Killer sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 113k–183k
$619k–$1.7M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.6M before Steam's cut
from 5k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Paradise Killer and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Paradise Killer's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 198k–301k
best case 349k (No Case Should Remain Unsolved)
Games like Paradise Killer

A typical game among these

≈ 198k–301k copies

≈ $1.3M–$2.3M after Steam's cut

from ~6k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: No Case Should Remain Unsolved at ≈ 266k–433k copies, ≈ $512k–$1.4M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 366 to 7k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Female Protagonist (6 of 8) and Puzzle (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Interactive Fiction + Puzzle, priced around $7.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Broken Sword 5 - the Serpent's Curse
2013
Est. copies
≈ 179k–291k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.1M before Steam's cut
$24.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
1990'sFemale Protagonist
Wytchwood
2021
Est. copies
≈ 120k–195k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$659k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
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CraftingStory Rich
Syberia: The World Before
2022
Est. copies
≈ 125k–204k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
5k reviews
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AdventureStory Rich
Call of the Sea
2020
Est. copies
≈ 159k–259k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$875k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
AdventurePuzzle
Far Away
2021
Est. copies
≈ 203k–330k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$726k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut
$12.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
SingleplayerVisual Novel
Enigma of Fear
2024
Est. copies
≈ 257k–417k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$8.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
10k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MysteryInvestigation
The Painscreek Killings
2017
Est. copies
≈ 221k–358k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
InvestigationMystery
No Case Should Remain Unsolved
2024
Est. copies
≈ 266k–433k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$512k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $930k–$2.1M before Steam's cut
$6.99
11k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Interactive FictionPuzzle

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